Formula 1 enters a new era in 2026 with major technical rule changes threatening to shake up the competitive order.

Lando Norris is the defending champion heading into a new era for F1 (Image: Getty)

Happy New Year! We’ve entered 2026 and we’re less than a month away from the initial testing days of what promises to be one of the most intriguing Formula 1 seasons in recent years. As of today, a new era of the sport commences with a host of new technical design rules poised to completely overturn the competitive order as we know it.

Lando Norris begins the season as the reigning champion after his McLaren team dominated the 2025 campaign. But can they build on that success and establish their own dynasty, as Red Bull and Mercedes did in previous years? The honest answer at this moment is that nobody knows.

Nevertheless, over the festive period, I took some time to polish my crystal ball and take a look into it to see what might happen over the next 12 months. Here’s what I saw.

5+ different teams win races

There’s been a lot of speculation about what the balance of power might look like when cars hit the track. Performance, obviously, will be a significant factor in determining who will be victorious in 2026. Equally important, though currently less discussed, is reliability.

We’ve become accustomed to F1 cars being virtually indestructible in recent seasons. Of course, there have been engine failures, oil leaks and the like, but many of these have been due to human errors during assembly. This year, the engine designs in use have been raced with for a decade, allowing teams to iron out every minor glitch, resulting in what are likely the most reliable power units the sport has ever seen.

However, new engines mean a total reset in this regard. I anticipate we’ll see a fair share of reliability issues, especially in the first half of the season, impacting both the top-tier and smaller teams. Despite an increase in pre-season testing days, it’s unlikely all the issues will be resolved before we hit the track in Melbourne come March.

So, even if one or two teams outperform the rest on the track, there should still be opportunities for others. In 2025, only McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes claimed a Grand Prix victory. I predict we’ll see a more diverse set of winners next year, with Ferrari poised to break their dry spell and hopefully at least one midfield team tasting victory as well. Aston Martin and Williams seem the most likely candidates to join the big four, but perhaps we’ll see an unexpected contender emerge.

A new champion?

Since 2010, only Nico Rosberg has failed to defend his title after becoming World Champion for the first time, and that was due to his retirement shortly after defeating his Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton in 2016. Otherwise, Sebastian Vettel, Hamilton and Max Verstappen have all successfully turned their initial victories into reigns of dominance.

Could Norris follow suit? If the new Mercedes engines live up to the hype, he certainly stands a good chance. With arguably the most robust technical team in F1, McLaren could well be the quickest off the mark come March. Though Oscar Piastri’s impressive performances suggest that it would be unwise to assume Norris will have an easy ride.

Major changes to the rules often result in a shift in power within the sport. Could Mercedes be the next dominant force? It’s a distinct possibility, and if so, George Russell has already demonstrated this season that he can mount a formidable title challenge given a fast enough car. Is young Kimi Antonelli prepared to do the same? He may still be a bit green, but his talent is undeniable – as evidenced by his performances this season, particularly at the beginning and end of the campaign.

If Ferrari manage to hit their stride, Charles Leclerc could well be the one to watch, despite sharing a team with a seven-time champion. And what if a dark horse like Aston Martin takes the lead? Fernando Alonso may not be a ‘new’ champion, but a title win would be his first in two decades, making it a significant achievement. Regardless, there’s no doubt that the competition will be fierce

George Russell looks well positioned to challenge for the title if Mercedes are strong in 2026 (Image: Getty)

Farewell to Hamilton and Alonso

Alonso’s contract is set to expire at the end of the year. Hamilton’s situation is slightly less clear-cut – when he signed with Ferrari, it was understood to be a two-year deal with an option for a third, which could be activated by Hamilton himself. This would mean his contract expires at the end of 2026, although he could choose to stay on for another season. However, some Italian reports suggest he is contracted until 2027.

Regardless of the specifics, Hamilton has the freedom to retire whenever he chooses. If he endures another challenging year, it’s hard to imagine him wanting to continue. Hamilton, who turns 41 in January, has nothing left to prove and has already voiced doubts about whether he’s still at the top of his game. If Ferrari are competitive next year, he’ll have his answer.

For Fernando Alonso, the stakes are different. A triumphant 2026 could be the perfect swansong for the Spaniard’s illustrious career. If he manages to steer Aston Martin to race victories or even a championship, it would be the perfect time to hang up his helmet. However, if the team falls short of their ambitions, it’s hard to envision the 45 year old calling it quits.

Another blockbuster F1 silly season

The 2024 driver market was particularly tumultuous and it seems we’re in for a repeat. Out of the 22 drivers on the grid in 2026, an estimated 15 are set to be out of contract at the end of the season. This figure doesn’t include Max Verstappen, who is contracted until 2028 but has clauses that could allow him to exit Red Bull next year if they fail to meet performance targets. Much like Carlos Sainz a few years ago, Verstappen’s decision could trigger a domino effect, with many drivers holding off on their own commitments until the Dutchman makes his move. But more on Verstappen later….

It’s quicker to count the drivers who have contracts extending beyond 2026: Verstappen, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri (both McLaren), Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), Pierre Gasly (Alpine), Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez (both Cadillac). All other drivers will theoretically be free to depart at the season’s end, and they’ll all be waiting to see how the new competitive order unfolds. Those with the strongest negotiation positions will be directing their management teams to do everything possible to secure a spot in the fastest car available.

The more the competitive order is disrupted, the more team changes we’re likely to witness. Could over half of the grid end up switching teams? If there are a couple of retirements and a sensational move from Verstappen, it’s not entirely implausible.

Many F1 drivers could switch teams in 2026 (Image: Getty)

Verstappen to join… nobody!?

This prediction might raise eyebrows for many. Verstappen was never really on the brink of leaving Red Bull this year, especially after Christian Horner was replaced and the backstage atmosphere became much calmer under his successor Laurent Mekies. But could this all shift in 2026?

Indeed, it could. Performance will undoubtedly be a crucial factor. Verstappen is not the type of driver who would be content with being out of contention for race victories and championships for an extended period. If Red Bull fails to deliver in their maiden attempt at constructing their own F1 engine, 2026 could potentially be a challenging year for him. However, this isn’t the only aspect to consider.

It will be intriguing to see how much Red Bull still feels like home next year. One of Verstappen’s closest allies, Helmut Marko, has already departed. Another key figure, his race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase, is reportedly contemplating offers from Aston Martin and Williams. Could this signal that it’s time for Verstappen to seek a new beginning? Time will tell.

While some may perceive Verstappen as somewhat mercenary, ready to leap into the fastest car available without hesitation, it might be unjust to suggest he lacks loyalty. I conducted a private interview with him at the 2024 Abu Dhabi GP and a recurring topic throughout our discussions, both formally and informally, was his desire to spend his entire F1 career with Red Bull. Reviewing my notes, he described it as a “beautiful” story. I’m far from convinced that Verstappen would find it straightforward to end that partnership with Red Bull, even if he believes it might benefit him going forward.

Cadillac shine on track

They’re the fresh faces in the sport, constructing their complete infrastructure essentially from the ground up. Naturally, they’ve been planning this for years, but it was merely less than 12 months ago that the 11th team, which began as an Andretti Global proposal to enter F1 before transforming into a complete General Motors-branded operation, received final clearance to feature on the 2026 grid.

When a group of journalists, myself included, were invited to visit their satellite facility at Silverstone during the summer, team principal Graeme Lowdon informed us he expected any established team would be extremely frustrated if they were beaten by the newcomers in 2026. While it may be true, Cadillac is not entering this venture with a team of novices.

Their recruitment strategy has attracted a host of highly skilled and seasoned professionals from well-established teams across the grid. Lowdon, who previously led the Virgin/Marussia Racing team for several years, is among the experienced recruits. Chief Technical Officer Nick Chester brings 25 years of F1 experience to the table, having started his career with Arrows in the 1990s before spending two decades at the Enstone team under various names, initially as Benetton and later Renault. Pat Symonds, another F1 veteran, is serving as a consultant for Cadillac. COO Robert White is yet another long-standing member from Enstone. And there are so many more.

Many would likely wager on Cadillac finishing their inaugural F1 season at the bottom of the constructors’ standings, and the odds of that happening are probably quite high. However, considering the significant changes expected next year for even the current teams, and the fact that Cadillac managed to lay some groundwork for their 2026 efforts without being restricted by wind tunnel testing time and budget cap rules, it wouldn’t be too surprising if the American team performs better than anticipated.

Experienced drivers Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez would be delighted with that. Both have been granted a second opportunity in F1, after losing their grid positions following challenging 2024 seasons at Sauber and Red Bull respectively. It’s essentially a free shot for them – if neither of them earn a point, it’s anticipated for a new team. And if they surpass expectations, suddenly they might find themselves wielding some bargaining power once more.