Max Verstappen may have pledged his loyalty to Red Bull — but the warning signs are flashing red.

Just weeks after rejecting a sensational switch to Mercedes, the four-time world champion is facing grim predictions from former race winner Johnny Herbert, who has doubled down on ex-team boss Christian Horner’s own fears about the team’s future.

The problem? Red Bull’s in-house engine gamble for 2026.

From Title Glory to Technical Turmoil

Red Bull stunned the paddock when they announced they would be building their own power units under a Ford partnership. But with the team already sliding down the pecking order in 2025, the challenge of matching Mercedes’ engineering juggernaut looks Herculean.

Herbert pulled no punches when speaking to Thunderpick:

“A lot of the people who were a very important part of Red Bull’s success have gone. They’ve declined very quickly. The power unit is going to be the biggest test, and that’s something they’ve taken on themselves. Producing an F1 engine is hard enough — making one better than Mercedes is another level.”

The Horner Echo

These concerns eerily mirror Christian Horner’s final public comments before his shock exit as team principal earlier this year. Horner admitted the “magnitude of the challenge” was huge and suggested it would be “embarrassing” for Mercedes if Red Bull’s rookie engine programme beat them immediately.

It wasn’t exactly a rallying cry — more like a reality check.

The Ford Factor

Red Bull’s 2026 engine will carry a Ford badge, but Herbert warns that branding won’t save them if the performance isn’t there.

“They’re just going to be this badged Ford engine, but done in-house. Can I see them bouncing back next year? No.”

The Brit fears that without proven engine expertise, Red Bull could struggle not just against Mercedes, but Ferrari, Aston Martin, and even midfield risers who might get the 2026 regulations right.

Max’s Commitment Tested

Verstappen’s decision to stay until at least 2028 was seen as a statement of loyalty — and confidence. But if the gloomy predictions come true, the Dutchman could find himself locked into a championship drought at the peak of his career.

Mercedes had been sniffing around, hoping to lure him away, but Verstappen declared his allegiance before the Hungarian GP, citing his history with the team that gave him his F1 break.

Now, that loyalty may be tested like never before.

The Big 2026 Gamble

The upcoming regulation overhaul will redefine F1’s pecking order. Herbert warns that without the key technical staff who powered Red Bull’s previous dominance — and with the mammoth task of designing a competitive engine from scratch — Verstappen’s camp might be in for a rude awakening.

“The designers, the aerodynamicists, the chassis guys… they’ve all got to prove themselves again,” Herbert said. “It’s a massive mental shift, and the pressure is huge.”

Bottom Line

Red Bull have built an empire around Verstappen. But empires fall — and if the Ford-powered gamble flops in 2026, F1’s most dominant driver might spend the final years of his contract watching Mercedes, Ferrari, and maybe even McLaren take turns lifting the trophy.

The question now: Will Verstappen’s loyalty outlast Red Bull’s winning streak?