Seven-time champion fuels speculation of exit with series of despondent comments after Italian team’s principal seen visiting Mercedes

As Formula One heads into its summer break, there is plenty of mystery in the paddock. The majority of it surrounds Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton. After calling for Ferrari to sack him, declaring his qualifying performance at the Hungaroring “absolutely useless”, Hamilton said he would “hopefully” be back after the three-week summer break.

Given his comments a day earlier, and that his mindset had not changed after the race, it was hardly a strong statement of commitment.

While Hamilton’s comments fuelled speculation about his future at Ferrari and indeed in F1, there was further intrigue over the weekend. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff was seen exiting the Ferrari motorhome on Sunday. Earlier in the week, Frederic Vasseur, Wolff’s opposite number at Ferrari, visited Mercedes alongside the Italian company’s chairman John Elkann. F1’s rumour mill went into overdrive, awash with speculation of retirement or driver swaps.

Extreme caution should be exercised when entertaining such dramatic theories. It is possible to put two and two together and come out with 44. There are any number of – quite frankly far more boring – reasons for these visits. The most likely topic of discussion was the upcoming regulation set for 2026, with dramatic changes to the power units the teams use – Ferrari and Mercedes are two of F1’s engine manufacturers.

Hamilton, though, is clearly not happy. But did that develop over the last two weeks, or is it more longstanding? His qualities as a driver and person were defended by both Wolff and Vasseur on Sunday, who essentially said that he was understandably upset at his performance, but he will be back – both in the car and also on form. Yet his demeanour in Belgium and Hungary suggests quite strongly that all is not well in Maranello, with a taciturn Hamilton talking about problems “in the background”.

What could they possibly be? Is he referring to issues with the car and its development, or something broader within the Ferrari team and organisation? While what happens behind closed doors at the team is hard to gauge – and the Italian giants have historically done a better job than any of keeping problems under wraps – issues with the car have been clear to see this year, though they are improving.

As for Mercedes, they still have no drivers confirmed for 2026. That is a strange, almost bizarre situation when one of them is George Russell, who has been one of the standout performers of the season. He underlined that again by taking a sixth podium of the year on Sunday – that is more than anyone bar the two McLaren drivers.

Rookie teenager Kimi Antonelli in the other Mercedes is having a difficult first season. His early promise and results have disappeared and it says plenty that his 10th place in Hungary – his first points since Canada – felt like a minor success.

Russell’s new contract was tied up with how far Mercedes progressed with trying to sign Max Verstappen, but the Dutchman will remain at Red Bull for 2026. On Thursday, Russell spoke about his contract and the odd situation of not having a confirmed seat for next year while performing at the highest level.

“They [Mercedes] ultimately hold the cards because of the situation we find ourselves in with the management agreement,” the Briton said at the weekend. “They have had no rush to sign Kimi or I because we have this longer-term overriding deal in place.

“Maybe 12 months ago I was a bit more anxious and wanted to get something sorted or confirmed for 2026. Maybe six months ago I felt the same, but now I’m performing better than ever, I still feel I’ve got more to give.

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“So, I don’t know, to be honest. Of course, for both Kimi and I, these past months have not been the most assuring for our future, and that’s just been a bit conflicting. So whenever we come to an agreement, we’ll get it done, but it’s got to be right both ways.”

The agreement Russell refers to is that he is managed by Mercedes. This limits his influence over when a new contract is signed. The Briton himself said he “lacked power” in this area. He also spoke of being “at risk” in the last six months.

However, drivers who perform well still leave when a team has its eyes on someone they think will be an improvement. Damon Hill was replaced by Heinz-Harald Frentzen at Williams after his 1996 title and Carlos Sainz made way for Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari after years of being a close match for Charles Leclerc.

With Russell it now feels like a matter of time before pen is put to paper, perhaps during this summer interlude. What about Antonelli? Signing him should surely be an easy decision given the praise Wolff has heaped on the Italian over the past year.

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Since beginning the year in the points five times during the first six rounds, Antonelli has placed in the top 10 twice in the next eight grands prix. Some of that was down to poor reliability but there were also mistakes from the driver. On Thursday, Antonelli blamed his poor form on his failure to adapt to the demands of the car. He also said his own driving style made the car more unpredictable.

What is worse is that not having a deal signed for 2026 is likely to have a greater effect on Antonelli than on Russell. The Briton can be assured that he will be in demand from the very best teams after his performances this year. Antonelli, as talented as he is at such a young age, has not made an undeniable argument that he deserves to be at the front of the grid right now.

But in the unlikely scenario that Hamilton suddenly returns to the driver market for next season, it is a certainty that every team on the grid would take a good look at the seven-time world champion before deciding their options.

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